Huge Imposition → Market Pop → Kornackikhaki

Hey Neighbor. Gap will see a spike in sales of its “Modern Khakis in Straight Fit” courtesy of the struggling mall brand’s most effective unpaid model, MSNBC voter counter Steve Kornacki. The least divisive figure on cable news, Kornacki is known for his encyclopedic knowledge of districts and for dressing like a prep school substitute teacher. And he moves product.

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If we were at a cocktail party, you might hear me say the following....

❝Warren Buffet went to cash.❞
....or....
❝Today is a big sex day.❞
....or....
❝RWNBA coach firings are a parable about the danger of success.❞

A few drinks later, I might add that Doris Kearns Goodwin sometimes hangs out at a bar (not saying which) in Concord, Massachusetts and just talks to people about American history and the Red Sox. Cool lady.

I might also try to talk about....

→ TEducation-driven political polarization – the wholesale abandonment of the GOP by people who’ve been forced to read “Dubliners” – has been the defining trend of MAGA-era politics. But new data indicate the scholarly shift toward the Dems is unique to a place we like to call Caucasia, where a yawning 60/33 split has become a cultural fly in the mayonnaise. (READ MORE)

→ Burnt out business execs are stumbling down the Northeast Corridor to Cambridge and enrolling in Harvard Divinity School. Getting a div degree has become, according to Town and Country, “the ultimate intellectual luxury, and flex, for high achievers.” It is also a bit of a resume differentiator – the soft-skills equivalent of an MBA. (READ MORE)

→ Financial advisors catering to the semi-rich have been sending out “cool your jets” Election Day portfolio updates, many of which contain reminders that the economy has historically grown a good deal faster with a Democrat in the White House [1]. GDP and personal consumption expenditure data paints a picture....

Whatever else the Harris/Trump race has been, it has also been a caricature of the gendered dynamics that drive financial decisions within most American families. Dad has a big plan. Mom ain’t so sure.

Though data on intra household bargain dynamics suggests that Dad gets his way most of the time, political polling data suggests women are pushing back hard against economic risk-taking. At least outside the home.

“Economic data is often collected at the household level, which obscures some of these bargaining dynamics, but what we find is that financial decisions incorporate 60% of husbands’ preferences and 40% of wives’ preferences,” explains LSE economist Cameron Peng [2], co-author of a new study on how spouses make financial decisions. “Couples’ money is invested in a manner at odds with women’s risk preferences. Allocation reflects the husband’s risk preference 50% more than the wife’s.”

By going through U.S. Health and Retirement Study and Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia data sets containing financial sentiments and individual personality profiles, Peng and his team were able to show that this dynamic was mitigated or exacerbated by personality traits and backgrounds, but only so much.

“About half the difference seems to be about perceived expertise and personal traits, but half really comes down to gender,” Peng tells Upper Middle.

Dad gets his way because he’s Dad.

Does this gender dynamic produce the highest possible returns? Unsurprisingly, no. A 2021 analysis of 5.2 million Fidelity accounts famously found female investors outperforming male investors by 40 basis points (though, as Peng points out, men consistently outperform women in the negotiation-driven real estate market). What the dynamic does produce is restiveness among women. Roughly 70% of millennial couples in a 2021 UBS survey agreed that “sharing responsibilities in financial decisions would foster a better sense of financial security.” The implication is that women feel less financially secure.

“Decision-making power is part of economic well-being,” says Peng.

Which brings us back to the Harris/Trump dynamic. It would be wrong – and weird and obtuse – to suggest the election has been a referendum on household finances. That’s not true. But, at the same time, wealthy white women do seem to have mounted a Fireball Whiskey Rebellion against needless risk. How else can we understand Harris’s ability to pitch herself as the “change” candidate despite quasi-incumbency? The change is about power – specifically the power to say no.

Dad has a big plan. Mom isn’t so sure. A decision must be made.

→ Comedian and “Horse in a Hospital” political treatise author [3] John Mulaney opened SNL over the weekend in a brown Hermes suit picked out by his stylist, Michael Fisher, who remains one of the least appreciated and most powerful forces in Upper Middle fashion. (FOLLOW HIM)

Sally Hawkins isn’t in the new Paddington movie. Fuck.

High-end spas in Manhattan have been booked out by anxious New Yorkers looking for a way to avoid election news. Feels like a big miss. They now Conclave is out right? (READ MORE)

Literary journal and early aughts throwback brand N+1 is running it’s annual Bookmatch fundraiser. For a slightly unreasonable amount of money, the editors will make a suggested book list. It’s a big source of capital for N+1 and a genuinely great idea for a media business. No one is sure what to read anymore except the TikTok girlies and they are dead wrong. (GET SUGGESTIONS)

The excellent FOUND newsletter has been making lists of great restaurants open on Thanksgiving. And there’s something deeply appealing about the idea of a holiday prix fixe. Maybe some white linens would get everyone on their best behavior. (READ MORE)

In 1987, as Reagan planned a trip to the Reichstag, linguists Penelope Brown and Stephen Levinson dropped “Politeness: Some Universals in Language Usage,” outlining a general theory of relatability. B&L’s book was based on the twin concepts of face:

Positive Face: The desire to be liked and respected.
Negative Face: The desire to behave however one wants with impunity.

Politeness strategies, rhetorical approaches designed to produce a social result, must, B&L posited, appeal to one face or another. They suggested that four distinct approaches:

Bald On-Record: Being rude. Threatens the positive face. (Example: “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”)
Off-Record: Hinting. Threatens the negative face. (Example: “This part of Berlin might open up a bit without a wall.”)
Positive Politeness: Showing admiration or reassuring. Protects to the positive face. (Example: “Mr. Gorbachev, you beautiful S.O.B., do what you want with this wall and also Crimea.”)
Negative Politeness: Demonstrating reluctance to impose. Protects to the negative face. (“Mr. Gorbachev, when you’re done with Perestroika and have a moment, maybe we can talk walls.”)

According to B&L, the popularity (and effectiveness) of each approach varies across social strata: “Dominated groups have positive politeness cultures; dominating groups have negative politeness cultures. That is, the world of the upper and middle groups is constructed in a stern and cold architecture of social distance, asymmetry and resentment of impositions.”

In other words, the Hugh Grant-ian dissembling of the upper crust – “if you don’t mind terribly...,” “perhaps at some point...,” “if you’re not otherwise occupied...” – does not represent real self-effacement, but a symbolic and incessant kowtowing to the rugged individualism of not-so-rugged people. Dinner party libertarianism.

The broader implication of this concept, which has been batted about by Myers-Briggs types ever since, is that the accepted social protocol of the privileged requires near constant repudiation of norms, obligations, and collectivism of any kind. Not only does this lead to self-radicalization, negative politeness becomes so habitual that we use it even when positive politeness would work better.

We offer freedom in lieu of reassurance. We’re surprised when the crowd turns away.

→ Election Day is basically Prime Day for momentum traders.

→ Just to restate the stakes: Harris has promised to cut taxes on everyone earning less than $400,000 and bump up the top income tax rate 2.9% from 37%, where Trump put it. She would also probably bring down the floor on estate tax eligibility. And none of this would happen without some congressional support, making it fairly improbably anyway. Trump would presumably maintain his own tax regime and focus on deficit reduction (Elon’s big cuts) and deficit increase-tion (tariffs and more tax cuts for the wealthy). Also, maybe some crypto stuff[4]. That’s the TL;DR.

→ JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon’s wife, Judy, knocked on doors in Michigan for the Harris campaign. Dimon, the money guy’s money guy, did not make a public endorsement, but has never made an attempt to cozy up to Trump (READ MORE)

→ Car prices are so out of hand a survey find 73% of potential buyers are holding off because of sticker shock. The average new car price now sits at $48,205, up 21% from five years ago, according to Bloomberg. The average trade-in car is six-years-old so consumers aren’t really having their hands forced. Most 2018 models have a few more years in them, which provides their owners with the ability to wait for the price to go down or the battery range to go up. (READ MORE)

NOTES & FOOTNOTES

[1] Republican average GDP growth 2.5%. Democrat average GDP growth 3.3%. Big gap, but FWIW, both numbers would be the envy of most Western economies.

[2] Peng’s background is studying markets. Also, he grew up in China and says there was a very traditional gendered dynamic in his home. He took it for granted as a kid. As an economist, he says couples that default into defined economic roles are doing themselves a disservice.

[3] Rewatch it today.

[4] Crypto markets have been all over the place recently in a way that makes it seem like a vote for the GOP is a vote against the dollar. This should give us some pause.