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Semi-Secret Agents → Kaviar With a “K”

Author

Andrew Burmon
January 30, 2025

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Hey Neighbor. The best quote in the CNBC “Phantom Wealth” piece that just went viral among rich-on-paper-but-not-in-practice Millennials hits in the tenth paragraph and comes courtesy of Columbia prof Brett House. “Phantom wealth is a nonsensical term: Assets either exist or they don’t.”

The feeling is real. That’s enough. We don’t have to pretend it’s economics.

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🙋🏼‍♂️ Poll Related to Today’s Feature….

 What’s the first word you’d use to describe your last real estate agent?

 💡 Helpful
 🧱 Useless
 👔 Meh
 🕶️ Hot

🫗 Errata: There were no errors in the last issue. Everything was fucking genius.

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→ The term “Spiritual Boomer” is cropping up thanks to trendspotters like Sean Monaghan and Edmund Lau. It describes a person (realistically a young white man in a tie) who believes the U.S. is an absolute meritocracy, denying that class mediates access to opportunity while decking himself out with class signifiers. This species gravitate toward “aesthetic ideology,” the fallacious but persistent belief that looking good – having a jawline to match the $300 Bulova – reflects mental toughness. Anyway… Brooks Brothers is back. (READ MORE)

→ The Kennedy family is fighting in public and it’s a nice reminder that they are not, in fact, tight-lipped WASPs. The Irish will out. Sláinte!

→ Weird evidence of the power of a family name: All-star voting suggests Bronny James is the most overrated player in the NBA. Owen Phillips at The F5 graphed fan votes against Estimated Plus-Minus, a player productivity metric, and found Bronny at one extreme and the underrated Ty Jerome at the other [1]. Jerome’s dad is a high school basketball coach. Bronny’s is not. (READ MORE)

Upper Middle Research identifies readers with professional expertise and matches them with surveys and focus groups that pay up to $300 an hour (probably during lunch) and keep them abreast of what’s going on in their field.

A spectacularly dumb real estate law is good, actually.

Even as the housing market soils itself, Malin+Goetz candle-scented open houses are on the rise thanks to this summer’s National Association of Realtors class action settlement ruling, which dictates that homebuyers must sign bizarre, inscrutable contracts with buyer’s agents prior to attending a private showings. This dumbass policy is akin to forcing shoppers to bring a J. Crew salesman to a Ralph Lauren, but it nonetheless represents good news for two groups of people:

  1. Loiterers who go to open houses for fun – the majority of attendees.  

  2. Upper Middle homebuyers, who get to ditch real estate agents unclear on how to help clients with champagne taste and prosecco budgets.

That’s a lot of real estate agents. Though helpful (and generally hot), most real estate agents struggle to understand the appeal of Tudor Revivals and Craftsman Cottages because they aren’t aroused by Upper Middle signifiers like parapets, exposed beams, and creaking stairs. There are several reasons for this.

  • Real estate agents are, on average, less educated than other knowledge workers. Roughly half have a bachelor’s degree.

  • Real estate agents are, on average, less expert that other knowledge workers. The median age is 55 and the median time in real estate is 10 years.

  • Real estate agents are, on average, less wealthy than other knowledge workers. Median income was $56K in 2023 – though much higher in more desirable areas.

  • Real estate agents are, on average, less male than other knowledge workers. Only 35% of agents are dudes (which presumably doesn’t help the pay situation).

In short, real estate agents are middle-class, white-collar workers [2]. Historically, that has been a strength. Only a few years ago, most Dutch Saltboxes and Queen Anne Row Houses sold to upwardly mobile professionals or first-time homebuyers. Putting some cookies in the oven and staging the family room with CB2 boucle sofas made sense: House hunting was more aspirational than personal (much less stain-resistant). But the market has changed. 

According to NAR stats, the share of first-time buyers was 24% in 2024, a record low close to half of the record high. And, due to higher mortgage rates, second- and third-time home buyers are now far more likely to be sizing down, moving to states with lower income taxes, or chasing a vibe. In all cases, the sell has become less about sense than sensibility. For a lot of agents, that’s confusing.

The “Open House Era”(TM) not only Upper Middle buyer the chance to consider their idiosyncratic tastes without distracting commentary (“The floors are new!”), but also, more critically, provide them the opportunity to meet agents selling homes outside their price range. Given the slowdown in the market overall, these high-end agents (generally Upper Middle themselves and disproportionately married to money guys) now have the time to represent their peers, providing them with better market intelligence and, ironically, greater access to private showings.

Sure, the NARV ruling is dumb as hell, but it’s good for buyers who genuinely want help – and for loiters who genuinely want cookies.

→ Society Social x Nick Mele, the preppy maximalist photographer, have dropped a new furniture collection that prominently features a table purpose built for board games and chairs to go with it. The pro-social furniture movement is just getting started. (CHECK IT OUT)

→ Speaking of chairs, the logline for the Juliette Lewis-starring film By Design, which debuted at Sundance this week is a one sentence masterpiece: A woman swaps bodies with a chair, and everyone likes her better as a chair. (PROOF THIS IS REAL)

→ Much of the coverage of the MAGA movement over the last two weeks, including features in the Time, New York Mag, Rolling Stone, and The Atlantic, has taken the form of scene reporting. This style of story can be great to read because it provides a fly-on-the-wall perspective, but it’s generally assigned because an editor and writer can’t settle on a clear narrative. It reflects a confusion about what all the spiritual boomers are up to.

→ Sam’s Club has done the impossible, besting Costco in the 2024 American Customer Satisfaction Index rankings for general merchandise retailers. This comes as a big surprise because Costco is basically a (super cool) cult, but Sam’s Club recently implemented self-checkout and AI receipt checkers. People just want to buy 13 pounds of Utz pretzels and go. (READ MORE)

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Upper Middle Finger Foods are pass-around plates that can be constructed in under 15 minutes without a measuring cup or all of the ingredients. Simple, memorable dishes that make an impression.

Caviar toast is the new avocado toast. With caviar having a moment – the Times Style section says so – beluga is getting a lot of press, but trend stories obscure the truth about roe: The good stuff is great and the bad stuff is still… good. Romanoff Lumpfish Caviar, which can be had for $8 at the right store (and $24 at the wrong one) is phenomenal on toast if you know how to prepare it.

Fortunately, we do and we’re in a sharing mood.

Ingredients

→ Caviar

→ Hawaiian Roles [3]

→ Eggs

→ Butter

→ Creme fraiche

→ Sour Cream

Instructions

  1. Cut the Hawaiian rolls in half and toast. Spread a bit of butter.

  2. Scramble some eggs. Six should do it. Light on the salt and, again, heavy on the butter.

  3. Mix a big dollop of sour cream and a big dollop of creme fraiche in a crystal bowl (so you feel fancy).

  4. Put the eggs on the rolls and the cream/creme on the eggs. Put the caviar on top of that.

  5. Plate it nicely. We’re not seagulls.

  6. Serve as an hors d'oeuvres or breakfast (if you’ve taken a new lover).

TIP 1: Let the eggs adhere to pan just a bit then stir quickly so they get a bit sticky.

TIP 2: IKEA sells pretty good “kaviar.” No joke.

→ Ray Dalio is out on “picks and shovels.” The Bridgewater Associates CEO and generally smart dude went on the VC-slanted All In Podcast and said something unusual to host David Friedberg: Companies using AI are likely to benefit more from the technology than companies making AI. This is directly counter to the accepted wisdom in VC circles that it’s better to invest in companies that make things for people that make things than in companies that just make things. That thinking saw a lot of startups pivot to B2B. If Dalio is right, there could be a pivot back. (WATCH AND LISTEN) 

→ This should make for fun family dynamics. [4]

→ Bankers at Goldman Sachs and Solomon bankers are complaining about low bonus checks despite boffo (always wanted to write that) earnings. No one is going to give much airtime to 25-year-olds making $325K, but this seem to indicate Wall Street plans eliminating low- and mid-level roles as AI provides a path toward that requires hiring fewer lacrosse players. (READ MORE)

[1] Technically Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander were more underrated than Jerome, but that feels like a voting dynamics issue. People know they’re good.

[2] It’s worth pointing out that real estate agents also have considerably more conservative politics than most white-collar workers and a more pronounced tendency to overspend on cars in order to keep up appearances.

[3] Hawaiian roles are the fucking best. I ate one for breakfast. No shame.

[4] The reality is that Boomers have been heavily subsidized by government debt spending so part of what they’re going to pass down is interest payments on that debt and the broken political system that comes with ‘em. Sweet. Thanks guys!