The Past Isn’t Hiring → Prodigal Aubusson → Affordable Art

Hey Neighbor. The idea of homo economicus, the citizen as rational economic actor, went out of style with the Casio calculator. But many of us still believe we make logical, defensible decisions about money. Right now – amid whiplash, Tweet-driven markets – that belief is fairly laughable. You can’t be rational without the right inputs.

You can, however, buy what you want. It’s the only logical thing to do.

The 2025 Scared Money Survey is our attempt to find out WTF people like you are doing with their money… before it’s too late. Results from the 3-minute survey will be shared (*exclusively*) with survey participants and Upper Middle Research members. (LAST CHANCE)

→ In the new book Born to Rule, sociologists Aaron Reeves and Sam Friedman dive deep into the historical database of Who’s Who and come out with a portrait of an aristocracy surprisingly responsive to social change. The most interest finding? British elites were far more likely to cite high-brow culture as an interest during periods of relative wealth equality (think: post-war stagnation) and far less likely to do so during period of high wealth inequality.^[1] These days they’re very excited about drinking down at the pub. (READ IT)

→ In the Times Magazine, Conor Dougherty argues that the only way out of the housing crisis is to embrace sprawl. Interestingly, this seems more plausible in Texas than it does in Boston because new developments tend to be inclusively middle class and the Upper Middle on the East Coast thrives on exclusivity. (READ MORE)

Hysteresis is a $56,844 (cost of a Sociology MA from Columbia) word for the lag between changes to a society and changes in the identity driven behaviors of members of that society. Whether you’ve seen the word before or not, you’ve spotted the phenomenon – probably in the form of the Don Quixote Effect, a romantic adherence to the norms of a prior era. 

Hysteresis is what we’re talking about when we say, “Do they honestly think living-wage manufacturing jobs are coming back?” We have no trouble spotting it in Pennsyltucky. We tend to miss it in Midtown.

But hysteresis ain’t just working class make believe. Six-figure office workers go “Full Quixote” all the time. Where blue-collar protectionists romanticize putting in a hard day’s work, we valorize the importance of creating long-term value. Their armor is the idea that the jobs are going to come back in any form worth having. Ours is the idea that we’re not just patching holes and job hopping

Though lazy commentators (mostly on the left) sometimes score cheap points using old job tenure statistics skewed by farmers, gold watch jobs were always rare. Still, job tenure is way down. The median job tenure of men^[2] between the ages of 45 and 54 crashed from 12.8 years in 1983 to 6.8 in 2020. That decline doesn’t mean weekend golfers are no longer paid to create long-term value, but it does strongly suggest that most aren’t around long enough to know if they did. 

And we’re not incentivized to care.

Though the number of publicly traded American companies offering employee stock ownership plans rose steadily from the mid-1970s until the Great Recession, it declined by 27% between 2014 and 2021. For VPs and Directors –principally tasked with managing, not leading orgs – this mitigated the upside of risk-taking, creating  conservative corporate cultures less focused on creating than fixing. Talk like a knight. Act like a serf. Swear allegiance to a lord who pays better. 

And this mercenary mindset no less prevalent at smaller firms despite the proliferation of equity programs among startups. Those programs, ostensibly designed to incentivize employees to build, actually incentivize employees to hang out for 12 to 36 months and ditch. 

The math is pretty simple. Roughly 90% of startups fail; only a few in any sector create wealth for equity holder. This is why VCs take a power law approach to investing, spreading money across a sector or thesis with the expectation most of it will disappear and a handful of investments will drive fund performance. It’s also why smart private company employees job hop like mad. They want a better than 50% chance at good money rather than a 10% (less in practice) chance at great money. They care about long-term value, but not creating it. Only founders are really focused on that and even then… many are wealthy LARPers. They take a few swings. It’s the logical thing to do.^[3]

Logic drives smart peoples’ decision making. Employers know this. At elite B-schools (Harvard, Stanford, Northwestern), post-grad joblessness has doubled over the last 24 months. This MBApocalypse represents evidence of a declining market for logical actors. That makes perfect sense given the incentives at play. If you want someone to tilt at windmills, you don’t hire the sane person.

You hire the romantic. Then you drive the romantic insane.

Roughly twice as many white collar workers quit as get fired and when these employees leave they tend to cite financial factors and burnout. That second point is critical. Burnout isn’t exhaustion from working too hard. Burnout is exhaustion caused by feelings of helplessness and misalignment – hysteresis, really. Quixote doesn’t quit — he burns out. So do we. Just in ergonomic chairs.

It’s easy to dismiss the idea that protectionism is going to lead to a manufacturing that will create jobs for anyone who doesn’t work in robotics. But it’s hard not to sympathize with anyone dealing with a personal case of hysteresis. Because it hurts. It’s a knife to the gut. It’s the kind of blow only armor can deflect. .

→ According to a new UBS report, auction sales of artworks under $5K increased by 7%. That’s great news. More new of us are getting in the game. Go team. (READ MORE)

→ Welp, we’ve got 90 days to buy stuff from Europe. Seems like the best approach is to start by buying things that are rarely made (or not particularly well made) in America. That means splurging on skincare (go nuts), bedding, cast iron, knives, flowers and bulbs, and some very-thick soled loafers – it’s gonna be a minute.

→ The Trump admin rolled back regulations on showers, reverting to the 1992 water pressure standard of 2.5-gallons-per-minute. Whether or not it’s good, it will feel good. Still, "Trump Makes America’s Showers Great Again" is a questionable thing to name a press release given prior… golden… accusations.

→ Meow Wolf, the immersive art collective adored by people who really vibe with Yayoi Kusama, is expanding into New York and Los Angeles, where it will be critically savaged as Millennial Discovery Zone. Hear that? It’s a thousand critics sharpening their pens. (READ MORE)

→ Scientists have proven that office music is dumb and bad. (READ MORE).

Tapestries tend to trend in America when there are big blank walls to fill. The first boom hit in the Gilded Age, when plutocrats wanted something pretty and sound-dampening for their cocktail spaces. The second came via Le Corbusier, as modernists built massive white walls begging for color.

Now, a third wave is here as wealthy Americans settle into apartments, often with windowless (shared) walls perfect for something bold. Hence, brands like Anthropologie are adding tapestries to their home lines. But there’s better out there if you know what to look for…

1. Machine-Made Aubussons
   Mid-century workshops across Europe mass-produced knockoffs of French verdure tapestries. Still widely available at auctions and perfect for traditional interiors.
   

2. Modernist Color Fields
   Popular in the ’70s, these collaborations between artists and manufacturers in Scandinavia and the U.S. feature colorful, simple designs that pop against white walls. Check out Barbro Nilsson or Synnøve Anker Aurdal.^[4]
   

3. Quasi-Quilts
   Folk and fine artists alike, like Bill Condon, have toyed with quilt-like designs—reminiscent of Americana but with a modern twist.
   

4. IYKYK Art Pieces
   A few tapestry artists—often named Jean—are legends among “tapheads”: Marc Saint-Saëns, Jean Picart, Jean Lurçat, Jean Luca. Prices range from $5K–$20K—not cheap, but a bargain by contemporary art standards.

→ Howard Marks at Oaktree Capital is known for writing level-headed memos that honestly take stock of what’s happening in public and private markets. He dropped a banger this week as Trump manufactured (and presumably profited on) volatility. A particularly compelling bit: “I want to point out that there are no experts on the subject at hand. Economists have analytical tools and theories to apply, but... there have been no large-scale trade wars in the modern era; thus, the theories are untested. Investors, businesspeople, academics, and government leaders will all give advice, but none of them is much more likely to be right than the average intelligent observer.” (READ MORE)

→ It’s tax time again, but there’s a wrinkle. The President is allowing DOGE to kneecap the IRS. So… what’s the cost benefit on getting creative? Lots of people are thinking about it right now. Everything is gambling now.

→ More cosmopolitan Americans generally don’t mind buying products Hecho en Mexico because we gustamos Mexico. (LEE MÁS)

[2] I’m focusing on men here because statistic related to working women are complicated by changing incentives around maternity leave and childcare. Obviously those things affect working dads, but definitely less so.

[3] As someone who has raised VC money, I can say this with confidence: Founding is both high prestige and highly questionable economic behaviors. It’s also highly stressful. It’s not something logical actors with valuable skillsets do.

[4] The wrinkle, so to speak, with the modernist stuff is that a lot of it is BROWN in a way that no one likes anymore (for good reason). Finding the good stuff just takes some poking around.