Golf Bang → Defensive Luxury → McMalaption

Hey Neighbor. In the early 1890s, Russell Conwell traveled between Chautauquas, new communities built around educational programming, urging Upper Middle intellectuals not to pity the poor. “To sympathize with a man whom God has punished for his sins,” he told them, “is to do wrong.” Among the communities he visited was the West Coast center of the Chautauqua movement, Pacific Palisades.

Today, the Palisades are filthy rich and burning. We’ll see how much sympathy can be mustered.

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Upper Middle Research identifies readers with professional expertise and matches them with surveys and focus groups that pay up to $300 an hour (probably during lunch) and keep them abreast of what’s going on in their field.

→ Emma Stone’s new pixie cut is basically the Pentagon Papers for beauty journalists, but not much has been written about the economics of going full Audrey. Short women’s haircuts may appear boyish and playful on first blush, but they require considerably more maintenance than longer styles, which is why they are – outside of Japan, long story – considered an indicator of a strong economy (though, oddly, Roman Holiday debuted on the brink of a recession [1]). Now that the U.S. has an extremely bifurcated economy, the short hair cut, should it fully return, will almost certainly be a marker of wealth – doubly so because it’s a very cheekbone-centric look and… Ozempic. (READ MORE)

→ The Pacific Palisade fire is creeping toward the remaining homes built as part of Arts & Architecture’s “Case Study” project, which sponsored the construction of 28 experimental Upper Middle houses. The most famous Case Study house is Case Study #8, otherwise known as the Eames House. It’s profoundly not for sale, but Case Study #21, a 1,280-square-foot modernist slab by Pierre Koenig, sold fairly recently just over $3.5M – a bit more upper than Upper Middle. Last Year, State Farm dropped 69% of its home insurance customers in the Palisades. Post-fire Case Study #21 will almost certainly be uninsurable. The price will come down. The future of the Upper Middle housing may wind up looking a lot like the past, but a hell of a lot smokier. (READ MORE)

The case for being a housing snob.

New Census Bureau data shows that the average new single-family home is now 2,348 square feet, as small as it has been since 2009 when the the sound of the housing bubble popping was still echoing off gratuitous pilasters. The downward trend seems to be driven largely by a decline in McMansion construction. Analysts have suggested this downsizing is chiefly due to Millennials’ financial hardships (it’s not) and interest rates (sure), but it’s also about taste. The ratio of big new homes to multi-millionaires has declined by more than 63% since 2002. The market for big, ugly, stupid houses is shrinking because many Millennials – specifically those with money – think they’re too good for McMansions. And they’re probably right. 

A snobbish attitude toward chunky new builds and suburban Visigoths bent on cul-de-sacking charming neighborhoods actually reflects the triumph of some admirable Upper Middle values.

Economic Solidarity

The “McMansion Effect,” well documented since the late 1990s, suggests that homeowners satisfaction with their home drops when McMansions pop up nearby even though their feeling about their neighborhood does not change. Because home satisfaction is correlated to the relative, not specific home size, homeowners near new developments become far more likely to add on and incur debt. 

The McMansion Effect also hurts retail values because it provides realtors with a pretext to lower home values – the McMansion invariably sold for less per square foot – in service of an easier sale. Additions do not always lead to additions. A sort of Prisoner’s Dilemma is created, which is no bueno for anyone.

Respect for Public Goods

Most American McMansions are so-called “Greenfield McMansions,” semi-Italianate villas built as exfill on the agrarian border of suburbs and exurbs that subvert socialized expectations of American towns, which are historically laid out as follows:

• The “West End”: Large estates built over time with some more recent builds sprinkled on smaller lots between. Nice views.

• The Old Residential Core: Homogenous housing for families. Smaller plots, older homes.

• The “East End”: Small homes occupied by service workers. Iffy architecture, but walkable.

• The Suburbs: Larger homes more irregularly constructed and spaced between the business district and larger, non-West End agricultural or undeveloped plots.

• The Business District: A largely economic district (offices and retail) with some apartments.

That’s not just zoning, it’s convergent evolution. To thrive, towns must offer access to nature and each other, providing spaces for them to make sense of themselves inside and outside of a social context. Educated Millennials are specifically sensitive to this because almost all of them staggered into adulthood in walkable, high-density suburbs adjacent to arboreta (read: colleges and universities). 

Not only do Greenfield McMansions create a physical barrier between homeowners and nature, they diminish density, creating demand for Business District parking lots invariably filled with Ram 2500s with front hoods so high they make it impossible to see children. It’s not unreasonable to suggest this municipal mutation constitutes a malignancy. 

Neighborliness

McMansions are built inside out. Contorted rooflines, oversized porticos, and nonsensical Florence-on-Thames window treatments are deployed in service of an economic, not aesthetic goal: Selling 3,000-square-foot homes with soaring foyers, continental kitchen islands, and living rooms, and playrooms (note: no living room, no dining room) at a 20% discount to adjacent housing. Bad looks don’t make Greenfield McMansions any more palatable, but represent a significantly bigger issue when it comes to Bluefield McMansions, property line-encroaching one-offs built as infill or backfill.

Because Bluefield McMansions stand out visually, they attract buyers who stand out culturally: new money and immigrants. The resentment these people experience can be misinterpreted as snobbishness if not xenophobia (specifically if they happen to be Chinese [2], which many have been more recently). But, in truth, it’s an expression of camaraderie among those invested in the community.

Yes, gatekeeping is can be bad, but it’s perverse to expect a cohesive group to tolerate an interlopers selfish, antisocial behavior. That’s some bullshit Boomer relativism. Considering what 3,000-footer can do to a bungalow neighborhood’s vibe (not to mention home values), building a Garage Mahal on a side street qualifies. There’s a reason Boulder just made it illegal to build a home more than 125% of the neighborhood median house size and it’s not just self-interest.

All that said, anti-McMansion millennials are about to face an interesting test of their values. Many towns and cities that previously banned the construction of multi-unit and accessory dwellings (most notably Portland and San Diego) are scrapping those regulations amid profound housing shortages. This should create higher density, walkable, and more attractive communities, but it will also mean significantly smaller homes and more middle class folks moving into historically Upper Middle neighborhoods.

If there’s still pushback, it will not be coming for a good place.

→ J. Crew’s newest model is (handsome) New Yorker reporter Patrick Radden Keefe, author of Say Nothing, the superlative non-fiction book on which the less-superlative Hulu show is based. Keefe told the Times his shoot was part of an “everyman” push by Crew, but that’s disingenuous. Keefe is a prep school [3], Columbia, Cambridge, and LSE grad, who knows from preppy. This presumably why he refused to wear a “brightly colored sweater knotted around [his] neck” for his big shoot. (READ MORE)

→ Walmart has pulled its viral Birkin ripoff (the “Wirkin”) from its site – never fuck with Hermes – but the dupe economy is still ramping up on Amazon, which is why fashion reporter Amy Odell is predicting a rise in what we’ll call “Defensive Luxury,” elaborately crafted goods, many of them leather, that make it far more difficult for dupers. Ripoff ballet flats are killing quiet luxury. (READ MORE)

→ Tiger Woods’ TGL (“Tomorrow’s Golf League”) debuted this week on ESPN. The league pits teams of three against each other in simulator-based play and operates out of a Palm Beach dome fitted with a 60-foot screen. If that sounds odds, it’s because it is. In Korea, where one in ten adults play golf, the simulator company Golfzon, generates an estimated $1.6 billion a year operator 8,700 “golf bangs” that function very similarly to karaoke parlors. The Golfzon Tour, a U.S. simulator tournament, is launching in the fall, but Tiger got there first. (READ MORE)

→ A paparazzi snap of Nicole Kidman at Sydney International being aggressively covered by affiliate commerce editors at style mags, but the cuffed mom jeans aren’t what makes the snap interesting. As recently as the 1990s, airport paparazzi pics drove trends in Upper Middle casual fashion. That stopped when celebs started flying private. It’s notable that Kidman in particular was caught at the airport because she has a private plane and is, in fact, the spokesman for a private plane fleet, which suggests the pic was planned. Could “Airport Style” return as a cultural force? It’s plausible, but if it does it will be as marketing. Airport security and paparazzi-focused legislation have changed a lot over the last 30 years. (SEE IT) 

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→ Some 41% of employers plan to layoff workers as AI becomes more prevalent in the coming years according to a new World Economic Forum survey. But layoffs really aren’t the story. The number of unemployed workers (many in tech, law, and media) spending six+ months out of work has increased more than 50% since 2022 as companies try to figure out who can and can’t be replaced by a black box. The future is here, it’s just unevenly posted on Indeed. (READ MORE)

→ The most betting-averse people on the planet are getting into sports betting against their will. Over the last few weeks, DraftKings and FanDuel stocks have been down because there have been so few upsets in the NFL (an inevitable statistical deviation). This means ETF- and Vanguard-focused investors focused on mitigating risks are taking losses, albeit minor losses, because Sam Darnold [4] is strong in the pocket. (READ MORE)

→ Queer Eye interior design makeovers cost +/- $40K.

[2] The racial component of the McMansion discourse varies by geo. The term “Persian Palace” is popular in Los Angeles and Boston, but doesn’t really make any sense in, say, Denver. Immigration patterns are specific!

[3] Like yours truly, he went to Milton Academy outside of Boston. So did his two brothers. And, yes, the Keefes were those guys: handsome, athletic, well-liked. They all had slightly patrician accents, but also slightly not.

[4] The whole Sam Darnold thing is an object lesson in managerial incompetence that begs a question: How many great players have seen their careers destroy by the New York Jets staff.